A New Look at Paternal Incarceration and Delinquency*

Prior research finds that children with incarcerated parents are at a higher risk of delinquency and various forms of antisocial behavior. Yet there are reasons to question whether this association is in fact causal, and research that empirically pins down mechanisms that account for any observed association is in high demand. The present research examines the association between father's incarceration and his child’s delinquency using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We attempt to better account for unobservable heterogeneity by going ‘go back to the future’ and using children with fathers who will be incarcerated as a strategic comparison group. In addition, we look at two different outcomes in an effort to make inferences about why paternal incarceration may influence delinquency. Results suggest that the association between paternal incarceration and instrumental forms of crime (e.g., theft) is entirely spurious, although paternal incarceration retains a significant effect on expressive crimes (e.g., destruction of property, fighting). Measures of attachment to one's father and school do not mediate the latter association. The implications for explanatory models emphasizing stigma, strain and parental attachment are discussed.